More online troubles for traditional retail: landlords beware

I wrote a post a month or so ago about the effect of online sales on the retail property sector (link).

One of the sources for the post was James Stewart’s Retail Postcard column.

James has just released another very interesting post (link), arising partly out of his recent appointment as receiver of the WOW SIght and Sound chain in Queensland (similar to JB Hi Fi but not as successful).  The current post is not up yet but you can subscribe at that page and get it now by email.

It deals with the trouble electronics retailers are having here and in the US.

The most interesting part of the post to me was this:

Best Buy, the undisputed market leader in the USA (FY11 sales USD50b, 180,000 staff worldwide), is now the subject of considerable speculation about its future despite remaining a profitable business (FY11 net earnings USD1.1b). In fact since January 2011, Best Buy’s share price has lost over 31% of its value and the business now trades at a meagre 2.8 times earnings, making it one of the five worst-performing retail stocks in Standard & Poor’s 500 Index last year.

And recently, I was appointed Receiver and Manager over WOW Sight and Sound, the $260m Queensland-based consumer electronics retailer which just found the going too tough.

So what is the problem?

The answer is simple: Best Buy has become Amazon’s showroom.

(emphasis added)

Last week I heard the same complaint by a Chapel Street small retailer selling fashion footwear:  people are coming in to try his stock for size, and then buying on the net.

To make matters worse, the manufacturers led by Apple are opening their own direct to market chains:

On top of this, the days of brand manufacturers needing retailers as their only channel to market are coming to an end.

Ten years ago, Apple did not have a retail store at all. Now it is the best specialist retailer in the world. Google, Sony, Samsung are all heading down a similar path.

While brands are increasingly becoming successful vertically integrated retailers, traditional retailers are struggling to remain great brands, particularly when they sell other people’s products.

There is no better example than Apple.

While independent consumer electronics retailers may say that Apple is great for business (because it drives foot traffic), they know that the margins they achieve on Apple products can be terrible (as low as 5%) and ultimately you cannot build a sustainable old school retail business on Apple products alone. The short answer is that Apple doesn’t need traditional retailers the way they need Apple!

So what does this mean for retailers and retail landlords?  My guess is not happy days:

  1. Retail electronics will continue to struggle and the retail space taken by them will come under price pressure;
  2. Any product that can be sold over the internet and shipped is going to suffer the same sort of pressures.  As an example, the well known bike store CBD Cycles in Melbourne has said it is being hammered by internet bike sales (including whole bikes!) from overseas.
  3. Direct to market branded stores will become more common – but will most probably require less space.

Regards

Mark

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